Indeks Pembangunan Manusia, Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja, dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Bukti Data Panel dari 34 Provinsi di Indonesia
Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia dan penyerapan tenaga kerja terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia selama periode 2020-2024. Permasalahan utama yang dikaji adalah belum selarasnya peningkatan kualitas sumber daya manusia dengan pemulihan pertumbuhan ekonomi di daerah. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode regresi data panel pada 34 provinsi di Indonesia. Berdasarkan hasil pengujian, model efek tetap dengan koreksi cluster robust standard error dipilih sebagai metode estimasi terbaik karena mampu mengatasi pelanggaran asumsi ekonometrika. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Indeks Pembangunan Manusia dan penyerapan tenaga kerja secara parsial belum berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Kondisi tersebut menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan kualitas manusia dan tenaga kerja belum sepenuhnya diikuti oleh peningkatan produktivitas ekonomi. Penanaman Modal Asing menjadi variabel yang paling berpengaruh dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Selain itu, persentase penduduk miskin berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, hal ini memperlihatkan adanya ketimpangan dalam penyerapan dampak positif pertumbuhan ekonomi di masyarakat. Hasil penelitian juga menunjukkan bahwa hubungan pembangunan manusia dan pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak selalu terjadi secara langsung dalam jangka pendek. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa pemerintah daerah perlu memperkuat keterkaitan investasi dengan industri lokal agar dapat menciptakan lapangan kerja yang lebih produktif dan mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih inklusif.
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